Updated Tactical Voter’s Guide to US Senate

Dmitry Borodaenko

With 10 weeks to go before the elections, it’s time time refresh my Senate guide.

I’ll start with the good news: Alaska and South Carolina are in play, too!

In Alaska, a commercial fisherman and orthopedic surgeon Dr. Al Gross has won the Democratic and Independent primary with a massive lead and is going to run as Independent with a unambiguously progressive platform against the Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

In South Carolina, Jaime Harrison has done much better than anyone expected, and changed the state from likely Republican to a toss-up. Few Republicans in the Senate deserve to be voted out more than spineless Lindsey Graham, and Harrison has made this a real possibility.

Here is where things stand with other Senate battlegrounds.

Mark Kelly won the primary in Arizona.

John Hickenlooper won the primary in Colorado.

Jon Ossoff (not Sarah Riggs Amico) won the primary in Georgia.

There won’t be a primary for the special election in Georgia. Raphael Warnock has performed better than Ed Tarver in the polls, Warnock also won endorsements from DSCC and Stacey Abrams. With both Georgia seats in play, donating to both Ossoff and Warnock is a good way to get the most for your ActBlue buck.

Theresa Greenfield (not Michael Franken) won the primary in Iowa.

Barbara Bollier won the primary in Kansas.

Amy McGrath won the primary in Kentucky.

Louisiana is now an over-crowded jungle primary with 5 Democratic and 2 Republican candidates, that makes it crucial that Democrats consolidate behind one of them. DSCC made it simple and endorsed Adrian Perkins, mayor of Shrevport and by far the strongest candidate in the race.

Sara Gideon won the primary in Maine.

Mike Espy won the primary in Mississippi.

Steve Bullock won the primary in Montana.

Ben Ray Luján won the primary in New Mexico.

Cal Cunningham won the primary in North Carolina.

Dan Ahlers won the primary in South Dakota.

Marquita Bradshaw won the primary in Tennessee (vindicating my disagreement with DSCC about this race).

MJ Hegar won the primary in Texas.

Paula Jean Swearengin (not Richard Ojeda) won the very close (split 38–33–29) primary in West Virginia. This is the only primary won by a candidate endorsed by Bernie’s shadow PACs and is going to be the litmus test for the viability of the socialist populism in red states. If that’s the kind of politics you subscribe to, helping Swearingin win West Virginia is your best shot to prove that it’s something worth trying.

Merav Ben-David won the primary in Wyoming.

As a reminder, following Democratic Senators are at risk and also need your support:

  • Doug Jones (Alabama)
  • Gary Peters (Michigan)
  • Tina Smith (Minnesota)
  • Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)
  • Mark Warner (Virginia)

So far, I’ve been wrong about 4 out of 18 Senate races, twice higher error rate than the 3 out of 27 calls in my 2018 California primary guide, but still accurate enough to be useful. Of course, the November success rates among the elections I called right and wrong before the primaries will be the final evaluation of my predictions.